Tools / Risk distribution
Monte Carlo Risk Simulator
Generate repeated trade sequences from explicit win/loss assumptions and inspect the dispersion of terminal equity, maximum drawdown and losing streaks.
● Local processing
● Seeded simulation
● No data stored
Risk distribution
Across 2,000 seeded simulations, the median terminal equity is $13,125. The 95th-percentile maximum drawdown is 19.8%.
Terminal equity distribution
The histogram shows how often each terminal-equity range occurred across the current simulation set.
Simulation frequency
Starting equity
What this simulation does
Each run generates a new sequence of wins and losses using the entered win probability and fixed net outcome sizes. The sequence changes, while the statistical assumptions remain constant.
Trade outcome model
Win with probability p → +Average Win; otherwise → −Average Loss
Maximum drawdown
Largest peak-to-trough equity decline within each simulated path
Methodology and limitations
The simulator uses independent Bernoulli trade outcomes and fixed win/loss amounts. It does not model serial correlation, volatility clustering, changing position size, compounding, partial exits, skewed payoff distributions, slippage shocks or market-regime changes.
Interpretation rule
Monte Carlo dispersion measures uncertainty around the entered model. It does not validate that the model assumptions are accurate.