ValthorLabs

Tools / Strategy Analysis

Expectancy Calculator

Estimate the average value of one trade after transaction costs and identify the win rate required to break even.

Inputs

Scenario preset

Inputs are processed locally in your browser and are not transmitted or stored.

Results

Net expectancy per trade$7.50positive expectancy
Break-even win rate42.00%+3.00 pp margin
Expected result$750.00over 100 trades
Expectancy in R0.075 Rrelative to average loss
Payoff ratio1.50average win / average loss
Cost drag$5.0040.00% of gross edge

At a 45.00% win rate, the scenario produces a net expectancy of $7.50 per trade after $5.00 in round-trip costs.

Win-rate sensitivity

Net expectancy across possible win rates using the current average win, average loss and transaction cost assumptions.

Net expectancy Break-even level
Net expectancy versus win rate A sensitivity line showing how net expectancy changes as win rate changes. Win rate: 45.00% Expectancy: $7.50
Below break-even35.00%−$17.50 / trade
Current scenario45.00%$7.50 / trade
Higher win rate55.00%$32.50 / trade

What expectancy measures

Expectancy is the average mathematical value of one trade across a sufficiently large sample. It combines win probability, average win, average loss and recurring transaction costs.

Net expectancy

(Win Rate × Average Win) − (Loss Rate × Average Loss) − Cost per Trade

Break-even win rate

(Average Loss + Cost per Trade) ÷ (Average Win + Average Loss)

Methodology and limitations

The calculation assumes that the entered win rate, average win, average loss and per-trade cost are representative and stable. It does not model trade sequencing, drawdown, variance, changing position size, compounding, tail risk or regime changes.

Interpretation rule

Positive expectancy does not establish robustness. It should be evaluated with sample size, out-of-sample evidence, stress testing and execution quality.